NRL Tipping
2026 · Round 1 · Updated Tuesday 03 Mar 2026 20:41 AEST
Betting Edge Plays
No edge plays qualify this round. Model agrees with market – stick to tipping mode.
Friday Lock Pack — Round 1
Avoid List
Dolphins vs Rabbitohs (vol: 0.289)
Storm vs Eels (vol: 0.189)
Sharks vs Titans (vol: 0.155)
Round 1 Tips
Storm vs Eels
Thu 05 Mar 20:00
TBC
Tip
Storm
1–12
Win Confidence D 49
Margin Conf 44
Market
65%
10 books
LEAN
Storm Form48%
Eels Form77%
Storm Fatigue10%
Eels Fatigue10%
Weather14%
Upset Index6%
Model P46%
Final P61%
Blendstandard
Margin8.0pts
Broncos vs Panthers
Fri 06 Mar 19:00
TBC
Tip
Broncos
1–12
Win Confidence D 51
Margin Conf 54
Market
56%
10 books
LEAN
Broncos Form66%
Panthers Form64%
Broncos Fatigue10%
Panthers Fatigue10%
Weather14%
Upset Index5%
Model P51%
Final P55%
Blendstandard
Margin3.5pts
Warriors vs Roosters
Fri 06 Mar 20:00
TBC
Tip
Roosters
1–12
Win Confidence D 49
Margin Conf 47
Market
63%
10 books
LEAN
Warriors Form37%
Roosters Form63%
Warriors Fatigue10%
Roosters Fatigue10%
Weather14%
Upset Index5%
Model P53%
Final P61%
Blendstandard
Margin-8.0pts
Sharks vs Titans
Sat 07 Mar 17:30
TBC
Tip
Sharks
1–12
Win Confidence D 47
Margin Conf 35
Market
74%
10 books
LEAN
Sharks Form63%
Titans Form38%
Sharks Fatigue10%
Titans Fatigue10%
Weather12%
Upset Index5%
Model P55%
Final P69%
Blendstandard
Margin14.8pts
Sea Eagles vs Raiders
Sat 07 Mar 19:30
TBC
Tip
Sea Eagles
1–12
Win Confidence D 52
Margin Conf 55
Market
50%
10 books
LEAN
Sea Eagles Form66%
Raiders Form29%
Sea Eagles Fatigue10%
Raiders Fatigue10%
Weather19%
Upset Index7%
Model P56%
Final P52%
Blendstandard
Margin1.2pts
Dolphins vs Rabbitohs
Sun 08 Mar 15:05
TBC
Tip
Dolphins
1–12
Win Confidence D 52
Margin Conf 54
Market
51%
10 books
AGREE MARKET_CONFUSED
Dolphins Form56%
Rabbitohs Form45%
Dolphins Fatigue10%
Rabbitohs Fatigue10%
Weather6%
Upset Index4%
Model P53%
Final P52%
Blendstandard
Margin1.2pts